Read e-book online A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population PDF
By Stanley K. Smith
This ebook specializes in the method and research of nation and native inhabitants projections. It describes the main familiar facts assets and alertness ideas for 4 different types of projection tools: cohort-component, pattern extrapolation, structural types, and microsimulation. It covers the elements of inhabitants development, assets of information, the formation of assumptions, the advance of assessment standards, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of assorted projection equipment and can pay distinctive consciousness to the original difficulties that represent small-area projections. The authors offer useful counsel to demographers, planners, industry analysts, and others known as directly to build nation and native inhabitants projections. They use many examples and illustrations and current feedback for facing specific populations, distinctive situations, and insufficient or unreliable information. They describe suggestions for controlling one set of projections to a different, for interpolating among time issues, for sub-dividing age teams, and for developing projections of population-related variables (e.g., tuition enrollment, households). They speak about the function of judgment and the significance of the political context during which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for selection making in an international of competing calls for and restricted assets. This finished publication will offer readers with an knowing not just of the mechanics of the main conventional inhabitants projection tools, but in addition of the various advanced concerns affecting their building, interpretation, overview, and use.
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Additional info for A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections
The availability and effectiveness of contraceptives also plays a role, affecting the ability to control the number and timing of births. Fertility rates have declined dramatically over the last two centuries in Europe, North America, and other high-income countries. Causes of this decline have included higher costs and lower economic benefits of children, lower rates of infant and child mortality, changes in female roles in the home and society, and improvements in contraceptive efficiency. Fertility rates have declined significantly in recent decades in many low- and middle-income countries as well, especially in Asia and Latin America.
Migration affects not only the total population of an area, but its age, sex, race, income, education, and other characteristics as well. Chapter 6 discusses several migration definitions and measures, sources of data, the determinants of migration, and alternative approaches to projecting migration. 4 Demographic Balancing Equation The overall growth or decline of a population is determined by the interplay among the processes of mortality, fertility, and migration. The nature of this interplay is formalized in the demographic balancing equation: Pl À Pb ¼ B À D þ IM À OM where Pl is the population at the end of the time period; Pb is the population at the beginning of the time period; and B, D, IM, and OM are the number of births, deaths, in-migrants, and out-migrants during the time period, respectively.
Chapter 5 discusses several fertility measures, sources of data, several theories of the determinants of fertility, and a variety of ways to implement the fertility component of cohort-component projections. 3 29 Migration Migration is the process of changing one’s place of residence from one geographic area to another. It typically refers solely to changes in place of usual residence, thereby excluding all short-term or temporary movements such as commuting to work, visiting friends or relatives, going away on vacation, and taking business trips.
A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections by Stanley K. Smith